JP Morgan: US economy will start 2021 with a decline
Analysts at the American bank JP Morgan Chase believe that in the first quarter of 2021, US GDP will show a decline. CNBC notes that JP Morgan became the first major bank to declare that the US economy will start declining in 2021.
Analysts see the reason for such dynamics in the negative consequences of the second wave of coronavirus, in the new restrictions caused by it and in the fact that it will take a certain time for the mass production of the vaccine against COVID-19. If in the fourth quarter of this year, according to the bank’s analysts, the US GDP will grow by 2.8% thanks to the pace set in the third quarter, then in the first quarter of 2021, JP Morgan analysts expect a 1% decline.
A recovery is expected in the second quarter with 4.5% growth, which will continue in the third quarter with 6.5% growth. In addition, bank analysts expect the US government to provide new stimulus measures of $ 1 trillion towards the end of the first quarter, which should help the economy in the middle of next year.
“The only thing that remains unchanged when comparing 2020 and 2021 is that the virus continues to dominate economic forecasts,” says JP Morgan. “After all, the number of detected infections during the current wave is much higher than in March and July. “.
Evgeny Khvostik
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