“Dream” is still alive
The parliamentary elections in Georgia, contrary to the expectations of the opposition, did not greatly change the political landscape in the country. Although the ruling Georgian Dream party, led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, won less than half of the votes, due to victories in single-mandate constituencies, it is likely to be able to form a government alone. Their political opponents from the United National Movement (UNM) party of ex-President Mikhail Saakashvili intend to abandon the mandates they received and seek a second vote. But they have little chance of success. To block the work of parliament, half of the deputies must boycott it, and the opposition will not be able to collect such a number.
At first glance, Saturday’s elections to the Georgian parliament did not greatly shake the position of the ruling Georgian Dream (GM) party. She practically repeated the result of the 2016 parliamentary elections – 48% of the vote. However, the reform of the electoral system, carried out at the request of the opposition in 2019, makes such a comparison incorrect. As the executive secretary of the GM Irakli Kobakhidze said at a briefing, his party will receive 62 mandates according to party lists. There are 150 parliamentary seats in the Georgian parliament, of which the Georgian Dream held 115 in the previous convocation. However, due to the deputies elected in single-mandate constituencies, the ruling party will be able to hold out the number of deputies to at least 76 – that is how much it needs to form the government alone. Considering that 14 out of 30 districts will host the second round, it is likely that GM will eventually receive about 90 seats.
Recall that reducing the number of deputies elected in single-mandate constituencies in favor of fairer, from the point of view of the opposition, voting on the lists was a key goal of the electoral reform carried out after the large-scale protests in summer 2019.
The electoral threshold has also been reduced to a minimum – only 1% – which should make the parliament more representative.
According to preliminary data from the CEC of Georgia, this barrier, in addition to the “Georgian Dream”, was overcome by seven more parties and the “Power in Unity” bloc. The latter unites the United National Movement (UNM) party of former President Mikhail Saakashvili and four lesser-known political forces: State for the People, Progress and Freedom, Republican Party of Georgia and European Democrats. Together they managed to gain about 27%, which, again, hardly differs from the results of Mikheil Saakashvili’s party in 2016. The rest of the parties that made it to parliament received less than 4% of the vote each.
Meanwhile, ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili, who lives in Kiev, had far more ambitious plans than to lead the parliamentary minority from abroad. Back on election day, October 31, he hinted that if other oppositionists decide not to wait for the final results and come out to protest against their falsification, he “will come and physically join the fight.” In addition, speaking on the air of several TV channels, he said that in the conditions of a strong opposition representation in parliament, it was he who would become the “main coordinator” of the actions of the “united opposition”.
However, despite the determination of the ex-president’s supporters, these plans, apparently, will not come true.
If at least half of the elected deputies refused to start work due to disagreement with the election results, the new convocation would not have been able to enter into force due to the lack of a quorum. However, in this case, the powers would remain with the current convocation and, accordingly, the current government.
At the same time, only representatives of Mikheil Saakashvili’s party announced their rejection of mandates more or less definitely, and the rest of the parties are only discussing this possibility. But even if the boycott is supported by all opposition forces, they have no chance to block the work of parliament.
This, however, did not affect the decisiveness of the statements and actions of the UNM supporters. After the rally near the parliament building, several thousand oppositionists went to the residence of the chairman of the ruling party, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, to shout “Go away!”
“I urge all parties to first see what the results will be, and then, if necessary, use the opportunity to appeal them,” Tini Cox, head of the observation mission from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), said at a briefing in Tbilisi. If the demonstrations begin immediately, then, according to Mr. Cox, this will demonstrate disrespect for the voter’s decision. However, it is worth noting that earlier, Senator Tini Cox from the Netherlands opposed the ratification of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, and then – for the return of powers to Russia in PACE.
According to foreign observers, there are not so many reasons for dissatisfaction with the elections. “The elections were competitive and ultimately fundamental freedoms were respected,” said Albanian MP Elon Jebreah Hoxha, a spokesman for the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly’s observation mission. Her colleague from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) mission Jillian Stirk also characterized the elections as “free”, but clarified that Tbilisi “still has a lot of work to do”: “We observed several polling stations and noticed that activists and the coordinators of the party (meaning the Georgian Dream. – Kommersant) were near the polling stations, which created an atmosphere of intimidation. ” Many people noticed suspicious people, some even with weapons, who were on duty at polling stations on election day. In some areas, there were even skirmishes with shooting in the air.
The first to congratulate the Georgian authorities on their victory in the elections was the President of neighboring Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. Moscow, on the other hand, reacted indifferently to these elections. In the opinion of Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, the result of the vote has no meaning for Russia. “I think there was no chance of improving bilateral relations whatever the outcome of the elections,” he told RIA Novosti. “Such a chance will appear when Georgian politicians agree with the obvious but unpleasant truth for them. Namely – that the self-proclamation of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008 was the result of not Russian, but Georgian policy, erroneous towards these two peoples of Russia for many decades, back in Soviet times. “
Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi; Kirill Krivosheev
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